Book design will diverge down several paths and has a surprisingly healthy future.

1) E-books based on a reflow format (i.e., suitable for small devices) will be based on common style sheets and exhibit a fairly uniform appearance. There will be a set of small (in size) firms that customize and refine these style sheets. Publishers will mostly outsource the format conversion since the ever changing variety of devices requires continual reformating of material. There will be some firms that profit very well from providing this service.

2) E-books based on PDFs also will be very popular due to the variety of light-weight computing devices with large screens. (The whole PDF vs reflow format for e-books is misleading unless one assumes that small, palm-sized devices will completely replace all other forms of desktop, notebook, and tablet-sized computers.)

3) Some material traditionally only published in book format will shift to Web delivery and “book” design for this genre actually is Web design. Many challenges for publishers in this segment who have not yet figured out how to monetize Web sites. (If publishers have not figured that out in the last 15 years, will the next 15 years be much different?) Many opportunities for new publishing firms to emerge to fill the gap for producing and monetizing engaging content using digital media. Many opportunities for designers since elegant Web design is neither simple nor cheap.

4) Print-on-demand establishes a significant market operating in bookstores, libraries, big-box retail outlets, and direct shipping to consumers. All those books still need designing and the PDF byproduct can feed directly into pathway #2 above as well as #1 with conversion services offered in pathway #1.

5) Print book designers will still flourish as some publishers will realize that a niche audience is willing to pay a premium for a wonderfully designed book, heralding a surprising renaissance in book design. Also, print book designers can design PDF-based e-books with no problem since PDF is usually a byproduct in the print book design process.

One of the projects I help out with is the International Literary Quarterly. And now there’s the interlitq blog to go along with the Quarterly. Add it to your news reader.

Regular readers will not that I continue to push back against the dire warnings that e-books will replace print books. My resistance comes not because I’m a bookman (which I’m not) but because sweeping, generalized statement leave out so much.

Everyone points to how cars replaced horse-drawn carriages, but there are so many examples where a new technology did not replace previous methods. Yes, e-books will shift print books, publishing, and booksellers in new directions but that doesn’t mean the eradication of print.

In the 1800s the public lecture was a popular and effective way to convey information. Radio did not entirely replace the gathering of individuals to hear someone speak. Cinema did not replace theater. DVD replaced VHS but not movie theaters. MP3s replaced CDs, cassettes, 8-tracks, & vinyl but none of that replace live concerts.

Moving-going, attending concerts and lectures: those are all communal activities but reading is not. In that way, reading is more akin to the solitary viewing of a movie at home or listening to music on an iPod. Yet, when we go to the movies, or sit through the performance of an opera, we process that experience in solitary ways, as individuals. Part of our sensory experience may feed from the audience (particularly at a rock concert) but much of our pleasure at enjoying movies in a theater or a classical concert stems from the environment of the theater and other perceptions. Who is not annoyed at that guy talking two rows over? (And, honestly, I do have to say that I can think of very few lectures that I have enjoyed in person. For that, please, please just give me the lecture on YouTube.)

There are ways that we interact with books through typography, design, and the format of print itself that are so successful that it’s practically transparent to most. For many books – and I don’t say all – print will remain the most effective medium because the book itself has a form that suits our senses.

In a decade or two from now, with advances in digital displays, this will certainly change but I still doubt that even by 2025 we will have seen the complete absence of print books. I know I must sound like a Luddite to all those who are convinced that everyone – right now – should be reading books on their iPhones.

What I do expect is that digital media will create new forms of interacting with a large body of textual and image-based material (the common ingredients of books), ways that go far beyond what we see with the current generation of e-book reading devices. Yet, the capabilities of rich Internet-based digital media have been with us for more than a decade now and, honestly, we’ve not seen a very significant shift towards utilizing this new media in creative and impactful ways. For that, I do blame academia and publishing. There’s a lot more that needs to be done and it will probably come about with the generation that was born into a world where digital media is not considered “new”.

We need to learn what it means to write with digital media.
We need to learn what it means to read a digital text that is not an e-facsimile of a book.

I spent most days between 1990 and 2005 thinking about the future of libraries. My career then focused on the planning, development, and management of digital libraries. A major topic for librarians throughout the 1990s was understanding the future role of libraries, partly by attempting to understanding what business were libraries really in. Much of the current discussion regarding e-books and publishing parallels these same concerns for libraries.

Indeed, many may think that libraries are in even more perilous condition than publishing and booksellers. But, at least at the academic library level with which I am most familiar, that is far from true. Academic librarianship – which has the clear purpose of serving the research and educational mission of its parent college or university – benefited from strong professional leadership that shared a common concern for shaping a strategic response to the emerging digital landscape.

Why are academic libraries not endangered? While not everyone is onboard, it’s safe to say that the overwhelming majority of the leadership in academic libraries share a common understanding:
* Libraries are not buildings.
* Libraries are not warehouses of books.
* Libraries provide a service to the academic community, which includes the provision of books (print as well as digital resources) but also includes other services (e.g., training in information literacy and digital media).
* Libraries have long known that no library can afford a book collection that meets the needs of everyone, which led to resource sharing agreements such as interlibrary loan and cooperative collection development among institutions.

Libraries realized that they serve the information needs of students and faculty regardless of media. An essential part of that service is “library as place”, providing a space for students to study, work collaboratively, and – yes – even socialize.

I could go on and on about strategic issues for academic libraries, but that’s not the purpose here.

Publishers – unlike academic librarians – don’t share a common vision or even goal. The variety of publishers mean that there’s no solution that fits the entire industry. Some publishers will determine that they are, indeed, in the information industry. Other publishers rightly will decide that they are, indeed, in the book business. Yes, the publishing of print books will survive throughout our lifetimes, but – of course – it’s will be very different for certain classes of publishers.